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Chris Johnson out 6-8 weeks

Fantasy Football, NFL News
December 1, 2015
InjuryCards will look to David Johnson, Kerwynn Williams

Mike Jurecki on Twitter: “Hearing Chris Johnson (tibia) expected to miss six to eight weeks. RB Kerwynn Williams could be an option from the practice squad.” (Twitter)

Nerdy Football Analysis: It’s likely that this development, coupled with the Andre Ellington injury, gives rookie RB David Johnson the opportunity he needs to excel and reach RB2 value, though Bruce Arians has consistently downplayed his possible use as a workhorse for whatever reason. Johnson is the 1A add this week, with Williams as 1B.

Week 13 Fantasy Football Projections: Top 100 Players and PPR Predictions

Fantasy Football
December 1, 2015

The holiday season is supposed to be the most wonderful time of the year. Whoever said that didn’t bench Sammy Watkins or C.J. Anderson in fantasy football before their Week 12 breakout games.

The 2015 campaign has been a roller-coaster ride for fantasy owners thanks to high-profile injuries (Rob Gronkowski‘s and Jimmy Graham‘s were the latest), inconsistent production and unexpected performances every week. For example, Anderson has not lived up to preseason expectations, and Watkins’ inconsistency has driven fantasy owners mad.

Elsewhere, guys like Markus Wheaton carved up the once-fabled Legion of Boom secondary in Seattle, while Ryan Fitzpatrick outperformed Tom Brady. Whatever is a fantasy football enthusiast to do this year?

While some roster decisions have involved rolling the dice in 2015, the following list of rankings and rounded projections will hopefully provide some clarity for the flex position and beyond heading into a critical Week 13 with postseason spots on the line. The projections are based on a points-per-reception scoring system.

 

Quarterback

Brady will be without Julian Edelman, Rob Gronkowski and Dion Lewis for his Week 13 matchup, but his high ranking is a testament to his greatness and ability to work through those obstacles. It is also a testament to the Eagles defense.

Philadelphia allowed 45 points in each of the last two outings to the Detroit Lions and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Lions and Bucs have admittedly played better football over the past few weeks but have nothing on a Brady-led offense.

Philadelphia is spiraling downward as the season progresses, and a matchup with the defending champions and one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time could be a disaster. That is, unless you are a fantasy owner relying on Brady.

 

Running Back

MVP candidate Adrian Peterson faces a stingy Seattle Seahawks defense in Week 13, but sometimes talent trumps matchups in fantasy football.

The Seahawks allow the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs per game this season, according to ESPN.com, but Peterson is simply too talented to deny. The Minnesota Vikings playmaker leads the league in rushing yards by 223 over the next-closest competitor (Doug Martin) and has found the end zone in each of the last four games.

He is carrying the Minnesota offense atop the NFC North, and the team will ride him all the way to the playoffs. That means plenty of fantasy points in Week 13 and beyond.

 

Wide Receiver

Demaryius Thomas is coming off an abysmal game against the New England Patriots, with only one catch on 13 targets. However, fantasy owners should heed the target numbers as evidence that Denver quarterback Brock Osweiler trusts his go-to receiver.

Thomas is still well on his way to his fourth consecutive 1,000-yard season with 875 on the year, and he gets to go against a San Diego Chargers defense that was 22nd in the league in passing yards allowed per game after Sunday’s action. Expect a strong bounce-back effort.

 

Tight End

Gronkowski’s injury opens up an opportunity for tight end Scott Chandler, who will seize it against a vulnerable Eagles defense.

Chandler scored a touchdown Sunday against the Broncos and also received a team-high 11 targets, many of which came with Gronkowski on the field. Chandler also had something of a track record before he joined the talented Patriots, with 655 receiving yards in 2013 with the Buffalo Bills and 12 combined touchdowns in 2011 and 2012.

Brady will throw to Chandler enough against the Eagles to make the tight end a valuable waiver-wire target in Week 13.

 

Kicker

A matchup with the Eagles defense means plenty of points for Patriots kicker Stephen Gostkowski. The special teams weapon is 24-for-25 on field goals this season and has drilled four of 50 yards or more.

Matt Dolloff of CBS Boston praised Gostkowski after his effort against the Broncos:

Gostkowski has grown into perhaps the best, most dependable kicker in the league. This season he has finally gotten the chances to prove it, and quickly silenced his remaining doubters. It’s too bad the Patriots couldn’t pull off the win Sunday night, because if they did, Gostkowski’s game-tying kick at the end of regulation–the entire preceding drive, really – would have been the stuff of legend.

A clutch kicker against a struggling defense is a recipe for fantasy gold.

 

Defense

The Chicago Bears face the San Francisco 49ers Sunday, but their high ranking is not primarily about Blaine Gabbert, who has been much better than expected. Rather, it is a recognition of one of the more underrated defenses in the league.

Chicago allowed less than 20 points in each of its last four games, and those contests came against stars such as Aaron Rodgers, Thomas, Todd Gurley and Philip Rivers. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has this team rolling right into playoff contention, and safety Chris Prosinski claimed that “the guy is a genius” when discussing his impact, via Adam Hoge of WGN Radio.

San Francisco also allows the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses per game, according to ESPN.com. That means the Chicago defense will carry it to another victory and rack up some fantasy points along the way.

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Josh McCown Likely Out For Season

NFL News
December 1, 2015

Josh McCown‘s return to the Browns’ starting lineup didn’t last long, as the veteran quarterback, who has been plagued by health issues all year, went down with a possible broken collarbone during Monday night’s loss to the Ravens. According to Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com, McCown will probably be out for the rest of the 2015 season.

The Browns have yet to confirm the diagnosis on McCown, and Cabot concedes that the collarbone may not be broken, but she hears from a source that the injury is likely serious enough to end the 36-year-old’s season either way. Considering the team has a league-worst 2-9 record, it’s hard to imagine he’ll be rushed back.

If McCown is officially ruled out for the year, the team will have a decision to make on his replacement. Austin Davis came on in relief on Monday night, while No. 3 quarterback Johnny Manziel sat on the bench. However, the club may ultimately decide that seeing what Manziel can do during the season’s last few weeks is too important to keep him behind Davis on the depth chart.

Manziel, of course, was removed from the starting job last week after photos surfaced of him partying at a nightclub in Austin. Reports indicated that the second-year signal-caller lied to the Browns about the photos, though the club never confirmed that.

As for McCown, if this is the end of his season, he’ll finish with fairly respectable numbers. The Browns only won one of his eight starts, but he completed 63.7% of his passes, throwing for 2,109 yards, 12 touchdowns, and just four interceptions. Having signed a three-year contract with Cleveland, McCown still has some guaranteed money left on his deal in 2016, so he’s a good bet to return either as the starter or backup.

Fantasy Football Week 13: Rounding Up Top 50 Player Rankings

Fantasy Football
December 1, 2015

Sure things don’t exist in fantasy football. As a pivotal Week 13 approaches, most managers have learned this lesson repeatedly this season.

DeAndre Hopkins, a pass-catching monster facing one of the worst passing defenses ever, produced 36 yards against the New Orleans Saints during Week 12. Kicker Dustin Hopkins offered more fantasy points. 

An elite player given an elite matchup made the Houston Texans player Week 12’s top flex play, but tight end Ryan Griffin stole his glory with his first touchdown of the season. Drew Brees, Todd Gurley, Lamar Miller and Demaryius Thomas round out an All-Star team of colossal duds.

With the playoffs right around the corner, owners must regroup and trust their studs to rebound. At the very least, they’ll hope days of matchup research pay off instead of losing to Marcus Wheaton and Graham Gano. Let’s not waste any time firing up Week 13’s top-50 flex rankings for standard and point-per-reception (PPR) scoring. 

 

Sometimes fantasy football simply makes no sense. It didn’t take any deep-diving to identify DeAngelo Williams as a terrific Week 10 play against the Cleveland Browns, who then ranked last in rushing defense. But a week after gaining 225 yards, the Pittsburgh Steelers running back stumbled for 58 yards against a vulnerable adversary.

When pitted against the Seattle Seahawks, who have surrendered the second-fewest fantasy points to the position behind Pittsburgh, he went wild. Uninterested in challenging a defense yielding 3.8 yards per run, the Steelers instead aired it out 59 times while affording Williams eight carries. It still didn’t hinder his afternoon.

The 32-year-old back instead factored heavily into the aerial assault, corralling all seven of his targets for 88 yards while adding a six-yard rushing score. As noted by NFL.com’s Matt Harmon, playing for the league’s No. 4 offense has certainly boosted Williams’ fantasy appeal:

In five games without Le’Veon Bell, Williams has registered 635 total yards and six touchdowns. This weekend, he’ll get another chance to make good on a golden matchup. The Indianapolis Colts rank No. 24 in rushing defense and allow 4.2 yards per run. 

While the Cleveland dud dampened his top-tier status, no player is immune to off days. Trust him as an upper-echelon option this week.

Dez Bryant hardly had any time to reconnect with Tony Romo. In just his second game back from a seven-game absence, the Dallas Cowboys quarterback again injured his collarbone, this time requiring season-ending surgery

Now the top wideout again must settle for Matt Cassel. Aside from a touchdown grab on a jump ball in heavy traffic against the Philadelphia Eagles, the pairing hasn’t made much magic through three games together:

In true Jerry Jones fashion, the Cowboys owner said a bunch of things that made no sense. Although the team is 3-8 and without its starting quarterback, he insisted to the Dallas Morning News‘ Jon Machota that Bryant will benefit by playing out the season through pain:

You can have the greatest talent in the world, but if you don’t practice it and hone it, then it’s not going to be at the level that it can be. Make no mistake about it, the [Jason] Wittens or any of these guys that are really, really talented, very few of them can walk out there, if any, and play at the level they’re capable of. That’s what’s happening to Dez. He just missed a lot of time here this year and he’s not at his complete apex of his A-game.

Perhaps Jones drafted Bryant on his fantasy team. If that’s the case, he’ll join a crowded group of disappointed managers who hoped the star receiver would heat up in time for the fantasy playoffs. 

Washington would present a mouthwatering matchup if Romo and Bryant were fully healthy. The improbable NFC East leaders have allowed 7.7 yards per pass attempt and the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts. As Bryant proved against the Eagles, he has the skills to make his own good fortune, especially in the right matchup.

Because of his talent and years of elite production, he’ll remain in starting lineups for anyone not playing in a four-team league. Yet Cassel drains Bryant’s upside and lowers his floor, downgrading him to a low-end No. 2 wideout.  

Then again, losing a starting quarterback doesn’t always have to be a death sentence. Ask the Indianapolis Colts, who continue to win behind 40-year-old reserve Matt Hasselbeck. Along with beating the Atlanta Falcons, the veteran passer helped out T.Y. Hilton owners waiting for another big outing.

Following his 150-yard, two-touchdown outburst a month ago against New Orleans, Hilton accrued eight catches and 118 yards through the next three games. Just as antsy managers started to search for alternatives, he burned Atlanta for 95 yards and two scores on a dozen targets.

In four Hasselbeck starts, the 26-year-old receiver has recorded 271 receiving yards. Inconsistency has always plagued him regardless the starter, but two of his slowest games with Andrew Luck came against Darrelle Revis and Josh Norman.

For this weekend, at least, Hilton works his way back into prominent territory. Only the Saints and New York Giants have submitted more passing yards to Pittsburgh, who has coughed up an NFL-high 169 receptions to wideouts. Against a typically tame Seattle Seahawks passing game, the Steelers surrendered five touchdowns through the air, including three to No. 1 receiver Doug Baldwin.

As long as Hasselbeck keeps holding his own in the pocket, Hilton (and Donte Moncrief) are alluring plays against a struggling Steelers secondary.

 

Fantasy scoring information obtained from NFL.com.

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Daily Fantasy Football December 1: DFS Stock Up, Stock Down

Fantasy Football
December 1, 2015

Even at this late stage of the NFL season, the outlook for each player can change in an instant.

Between injuries, matchups and adjusted roles, anyone in the NFL can go from an unknown to a superstar or vice versa in a week. This means you have to pay attention in daily fantasy football to get the most out of your lineup.

Here is a look at the latest stock report to help you out heading into Week 13.

 

Stock Up

Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($5,900)

He didn’t get into the end zone last game, but Doug Martin has played extremely well over the past few weeks. The running back followed up his 235-yard performance in Week 11 with 97 rushing yards on 14 carries in Week 12.

Additionally, Martin has been a bit unlucky when it comes to getting touchdowns. He had a score called back on Sunday, while the week before, he was stopped at the 1-yard line after an 84-yard run. He is getting the opportunities, and eventually, this will turn into touchdowns.

He will certainly have a good chance to produce in Week 13 against an Atlanta Falcons defense that has allowed 13 rushing touchdowns this season, second most in the NFL. With the way he has run the ball, this could be a huge showing.

 

DeVante Parker, WR, Miami Dolphins ($3,300)

Although the first-round pick hasn’t had an easy time getting on the field this season, an injury to Rishard Matthews got DeVante Parker in the game Sunday, and the rookie responded with four catches for 80 yards and a touchdown.

He also finished with 10 targets, behind only Jarvis Landry for the team lead.

According to Rand Getlin of NFL Network, Matthews could miss some more time:

This leaves Parker with a huge opportunity to finally show why he was drafted with the No. 14 overall pick. With the Dolphins dropping to 4-7, there is no reason to keep him on the bench any longer. This would be a risky pick in Week 13, but there is a lot of upside available at the price.

 

Scott Chandler, TE, New England Patriots ($2,500)

The New England Patriots have survived some key injuries already this season, but perhaps the only player they couldn’t afford to lose outside of Tom Brady was tight end Rob Gronkowski. Unfortunately, this is one injury they will now have to try to survive.

ESPN’s Adam Schefter provided the latest on the Pro Bowl tight end’s timetable:

This leaves an opportunity for Scott Chandler to become a bigger part of a high-powered offense. The backup had a few drops early Sunday night but finished with five catches for 58 yards and a touchdown against the Denver Broncos on a team-high 11 targets.

Brady is still capable of moving the chains at will, but he is running out of targets he trusts. Chandler is in this exclusive group and could become one of the best cheap plays of the week.

 

Stock Down

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers ($7,200)

There is no denying Aaron Rodgers has been one of the best quarterbacks in football over the past few years, but something has not been right over the past month. Last year’s MVP has struggled with accuracy lately, failing to reach a 60 percent completion rate in any of the last four games.

Rodgers explained this week he is just not in a rhythm with his receivers, per Weston Hodkiewicz of the Press-Gazette:

I’m obviously going to have to make sure my preparation is as high as it’s ever been because we need to get on the same page, the passing game. We’re just on different pages. When you miss throws, when I’m throwing at a certain depth, when receivers are running at certain depth — we’re obviously on different pages.

This week, he faces a Detroit Lions defense that has improved immensely since the start of the year and only three weeks ago held the Green Bay Packers to 16 points in an upset win.

Whether you want to blame the receivers, Rodgers or even Olivia Munn (for whatever reason), drafting the quarterback is too much of a risk for the money.

 

Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($7,300)

It’s clear Mike Evans hasn’t been quite as good as his production implies this season. He has benefited from a lot of targets, although he has only brought in 44 of 92 looks his way. With Vincent Jackson back in the lineup, these targets have diminished a bit, leading to a relatively quiet five catches for 64 yards in Week 12.

Things won’t get any easier for him in Week 13 with a tough matchup against Desmond Trufant, who has been one of the top cornerbacks in the NFL this year.

According to Pro Football Focus, Trufant trails only Patrick Peterson in average snaps per reception at 17.5. The 9.7 snaps per target against him is also second best. The cornerback has only allowed a single touchdown in coverage all season.

Receivers simply don’t get open against Trufant, and Evans will have a hard time breaking this trend in Week 13. 

 

Latavius Murray, RB, Oakland Raiders ($4,800)

After a good start to the season, Latavius Murray has quieted down in a hurry. The Oakland Raiders running back has failed to top 100 yards from scrimmage in any of the last four games and has scored only a single touchdown in this stretch.

The result is a pedestrian 10.3 fantasy points per game on DraftKings.

Considering he rarely gets enough catches to make a difference in points-per-reception scoring, Murray has transformed from a safe bet into a low-upside option.

Against a tough Kansas City Chiefs front seven, Murray should be avoided in Week 13.

 

Note: All prices and fantasy score info courtesy of DraftKings. Unless otherwise noted, all stats courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com.


Enter the DraftKings $1M Play-Action contest this weekend. Use promo code Nerdy Football when you sign up.

 

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