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Fantasy Football Week 16 Rankings: Final Outlook for Sunday's Flex, PPR Players

Fantasy Football
December 27, 2015

Fantasy football goes to a bold place where no other game dreams of going. Weary of the randomness Week 17 festers on an already random activity, most leagues simply ignore its existence.

As a common courtesy to players seeking a rightful champion, a final week occasionally soiled by resting stars gets wiped off the fantasy schedule. This leaves Week 16 as the final battle for championship participants.

The joke’s on anyone expecting a clear-cut, predictable resolution this weekend. These final flex rankings for standard and point-per-reception (PPR) leagues account for matchups and playing trends, but this maddening recreation rarely goes according to plan.

 

Frank Gore, RB, Indianapolis Colts

He remains too involved in the Indianapolis Colts offense to truly bottom out and merit a bust branding, but Frank Gore hasn’t met expectations. 

The ageless wonder has aged horribly this year, netting a career-low 3.6 yards per carry. Barring two superb games, he’ll finish below 4.0 for the first time in his 11-year career.

“I didn’t think it would be like this, especially when you have the players they put on this roster,” Gore told ESPN.com’s Mike Wells. “A lot of things haven’t gone our way this season. We just haven’t gotten it done.”

Adding Gore and Andre Johnson to an already prolific offense led by Andrew Luck was supposed to make Indianapolis an offensive juggernaut. Instead, it rates No. 26 in total offense, yet volume has kept the ineffective veteran fantasy-relevant.

Despite still searching for his first 100-yard rushing outing of the season, Gore ranks No. 17 in NFL.com scoring among running backs. Josh Moore of 4for4football.com showed the reason for the solid rank:

Gore’s ability to finish as top-20 back says more about the decaying position riddled with injuries and timeshares. Like a fast-food chain, he’s just there. He’s usually no more than a flex play for someone thin on alternatives, but the Miami Dolphins relinquish 4.6 yards per carry and the second-most NFL.com fantasy points to running backs.

While Danny Woodhead’s four touchdowns isn’t an attainable goal, Rashad Jennings went from useless to offering 102 total yards against Miami during Week 14. Gore isn’t the reason anyone made it this far, but he could be the one who seals the deal.

 

A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Fantasy gamers are often advised to trust their studs. Benching A.J. Green before Monday night, however, is far from a crazy move.

AJ McCarron‘s first start didn‘t go well for the Cincinnati Bengals receiver. Against the San Francisco 49ers, who allow 8.1 yards per pass attempt, Green mustered one 37-yard catch on three targets. The understudy quarterback now must combat the Denver Broncos’ No. 1 passing defense.

Even with Andy Dalton at the helm, the Broncos are an uncomfortable matchup for anyone besides the Pittsburgh Steelers. Whether he’s covered by Chris Harris or Aqib Talib, Green will encounter a top-flight cornerback.

This isn’t to say everyone should sit Green, as few will have the luxury of a superior option. After all, this is a wideout with five 1,000-yard campaigns in as many seasons. He also showed much better rapport with McCarron when they connected for 115 yards and a touchdown versus the Steelers.

Don’t expect a grand return, but don’t ignore the notion of sitting him if he’s blocking a Kamar Aiken or Tyler Lockett from starting.

 

Darren McFadden, RB, Dallas Cowboys 

Darren McFadden didn‘t take over as the Dallas Cowboys starting running back until Week 7. He still ranks No. 8 with 898 rushing yards, averaging 19 carries since assuming the top spot.

Perhaps learning a lesson after overworking DeMarco Murray last year, Dallas has eased McFadden’s workload recently. The 28-year-old has accrued 49 carries over the past four games, but it didn‘t stop him for notching consecutive 100-yard outings.

As he searches for his first 1,000-yard season since 2007, the Cowboys will have little choice but to feed him all afternoon. According to DallasCowboys.com’s Nick Eaton, wide receiver Dez Bryant will not suit up against the Buffalo Bills:

McFadden ousted Joseph Randle as Dallas’ primary rusher one game before Bryant’s return from an injury sustained in Week 1. The rusher compiled 29 handoffs for 152 yards and a touchdown in a 27-20 loss to the New York Giants, overcoming three Matt Cassel interceptions.

He must circumvent a putrid passing offense, which makes him Buffalo’s top priority. But McFadden is also one of the league’s best bets to reach 20 rushes, preserving his positioning as a low-end No. 1 back.

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Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Week 16: Advice Before Fantasy Football Lineup Deadline

Fantasy Football
December 27, 2015

Happy Holidays, folks, but more importantly, Happy Championship Week!

Well, unless you didn’t make the championship. Bah humbug.

For those of you who are playing for a title, however, let’s break down my advice for players worth starting and players worth sitting this week.

 

Start ‘Em: Jameis Winston, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Winston has been a bit hit-or-miss this season, but against a Chicago Bears team that has given up 24 points, 21 points and 32 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in the past three weeks, Winston seems more likely to hit than miss.

His head coach, Lovie Smith, certainly had nothing but praise for him this week.

“The guy is an outstanding player, a great leader, everything you would want in a first-round draft pick, top player in the draft, all of that you want him to be, he has been,” Smith said, per Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times. “He is excited about finishing it up the right way like we talked about with our football team. It’s safe to say his future is pretty bright.” 

Expect him to finish up the fantasy season in a big way against Chicago.

 

Sit ‘Em: Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons

Ignore the fact that the Carolina Panthers have given up 20 or more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in two of their last three games. Ryan has scored 20 or more fantasy points just once all year and hasn’t scored 15 or more points since Week 11.

Ryan looked like a viable, lower-tier QB1 in the first three weeks of the season. Since then, he’s been an absolute bust.

 

Start ‘Em: James White, RB, New England Patriots

If you were only looking at the matchup, you’d probably hesitate to start White. After all, the New York Jets are giving up the third-fewest fantasy points to running backs this season.

But White has become the main offensive weapon outside of Rob Gronkowski with so many injuries to New England’s skill-position players this year, notching nine or more fantasy points in four of the last five weeks.

And his coaches and teammates are impressed with his contributions.

Mike Reiss of ESPN.com wrote, “From head coach Bill Belichick to offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and quarterback Tom Brady, the words ‘steady,’ ‘intelligent’ and ‘dependable’ were a notable theme when they were talking about White’s contributions, which have grown since Dion Lewis was lost to a torn ACL on Nov. 8.”

Just another reason to keep him in those lineups.

Besides, the Jets may be solid against the run, but White is primarily a weapon in the passing game. Don’t hesitate to start him this week, especially if you are thin at running back.  

 

Sit ‘Em: Javorius Allen, RB, Baltimore Ravens

Allen has rushed for just 32 yards on 12 carries the past two weeks. The Steelers give up the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs per game. 

You do the math. Sit Allen.

 

Start ‘Em: Jeremy Maclin, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

Maclin has been a breath of fresh air in Kansas City, where the wide receivers were complete non-factors a year ago. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Browns have given up 150 or more receiving yards to opposing wideouts 10 times and 20 total touchdowns.

Maclin should roast this defense. 

 

Sit ‘Em: James Jones and Randall Cobb, WR, Green Bay Packers

What a disappointment Green Bay’s offense has been this year. Well, at least compared to seasons past. 

In Jones and Cobb, you get contrast. Jones is good for the occasional outburst, though he’s inconsistent, posting double-digit points just twice in Green Bay’s eight games since a Week 7 bye. Cobb is a bit more consistent, but his ceiling has been low, as he’s scored between five and eight fantasy points in six straight weeks.

Even with Tyrann Mathieu out for the season, Arizona still has a good pass defense. I wouldn’t trust either of these wideouts this week.

 

Start ‘Em: Julius Thomas, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars

At a weak position, Thomas is one of the hottest commodities around, posting seven or more fantasy points in five straight games. With a matchup against a Saints team that gives up the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends per week, he’s an obvious start.

 

Sit ‘Em: Gary Barnidge, TE, Cleveland Browns

The reason you want to sit one of the top tight ends in fantasy this week is…ah, who am I kidding? Of course you can’t sit Barnidge, even when he’s playing the stingiest defense against tight ends in fantasy, the Kansas City Chiefs.

I just wanted to make sure you were still paying attention. 

But at this point in the year, you can’t afford to sit a top tight end, even when he’s facing a brutal matchup. Truthfully, if you managed to escape the season with a productive tight end who didn’t get hurt or suffer from long bouts of inconsistency, well, you’re in the minority. And you can never sit that player. Even if snarky—but dashingly handsome—sportswriters try to trick you now and again.

 

All fantasy stats, ownership percentages and points-against totals via ESPN standard leagues.

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Ryan Mallett expected to start for Ravens

Fantasy Football
December 27, 2015

InjuryBaltimore auditioning Mallett for 2016

#Ravens are expected to start newly signed QB Ryan Mallett tomorrow, sources tell me and @AKinkhabwala. A tryout for 2016. (Ian Rapoport on Twitter)

Nerdy Football Analysis: Mallett will get the call over Jimmy Clausen and while Pittsburgh has given up the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, Mallett is difficult to trust given the lack of weapons and his newness with the offense. The Ravens project to be behind most of the day, so garbage time stats are a real possibility.

Brees, Watson expected to play for Saints

Fantasy Football
December 27, 2015

InjuryBoth listed as Questionable

Saints TE Ben Watson (knee, questionable) will play today vs. Jags, WR Marques Colston (chest, Q), however, will not, per sources. He’s out. (Adam Schefter on Twitter)

Nerdy Football Analysis: This is good news for the Saints passing offense. Brees can be in your starting lineup but understand he will be at less than 100%. He remains a QB1 against a porous Jags pass defense. Watson missed practice all week, so he will be difficult to trust as a TE1 but has a plus matchup as well.

Documentary Links Peyton Manning, Other NFLers To PEDs

Fantasy Football
December 26, 2015

In 2011, when Peyton Manning was recovering from a career-threatening neck injury, an Indianapolis anti-aging clinic supplied him and his wife with human growth hormone – which is on the NFL’s banned substances list – according to a pharmacist who worked at the clinic, Travis Waldron and Ryan Grim of The Huffington Post write.

Guyer Institute pharmacist Charlie Sly claims he was “part of a medical team that helped [Manning] recover.” Sly made that statement to Liam Collins, a British hurdler who went undercover for an Al Jazeera documentary, “The Dark Side,” centering on the global epidemic of performance-enhancing drugs in sports.

“All the time we would be sending Ashley Manning drugs,” says Sly on video, unaware that Collins was videotaping him. “Like growth hormone, all the time, everywhere, Florida. And it would never be under Peyton’s name, it would always be under her name.”

Sly also declares that Manning and his wife showed up at the clinic after normal business hours for intravenous treatments.

In response, Manning’s agent, Tom Condon, rejected Sly’s allegations to Al Jazeera and referred to them as “outrageous and wrong.”

“The treatment he received at the Guyer Institute was provided on the advice of his physician and with the knowledge of team doctors and trainers,” said Condon, who neither confirmed nor denied that growth hormones were sent to Manning’s wife.

“Any medical treatment received by Ashley is a private matter of hers, her doctor, and her family,” Condon said.

As noted by Waldron and Grim, the league banned HGH in 2011 but didn’t begin testing for it until 2014. No NFL player has ever tested positive for it.

In addition to Manning, Sly and fellow pharmacist Chad Robertson name Packers linebackers Mike Neal and Julius Peppers, Steelers LB James Harrison and ex-NFL tight end Dustin Keller as players they supplied with banned substances. Neal, Peppers, Harrison and Keller are all linked to hormone supplement Delta-2, which Sly says is designed to stay ahead of drug tests.

Further, Sly contends to have provided prescription painkiller Percocet to Packers LB Clay Matthews, whom Sly says also attempted to obtain Toradol – another painkiller. Toradol is banned in many countries, but not the United States.

Harrison issued a denial to Al Jazeera, while Neal, Peppers and Matthews didn’t respond to the network’s request for comment, per Waldron and Grim.