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Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Week 4: Advice for Unfavorable Fantasy Football Matchups

Fantasy Football
September 30, 2017

Nothing is trickier on a weekly basis than deciding how much weight you should put into matchups when setting your fantasy lineup. Is the matchup so bad you’ll sit a good player? Is it so good you’ll start a bad one?

Below, we’ll focus on whether you should start or sit a few intriguing players at every position who face difficult matchups this week.

       

Start Him: Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons

The Buffalo Bills have stifled opposing quarterbacks, holding them to just 10.9 fantasy points per week in standard-scoring leagues. 

Just how much can we trust that number, though?

Probably not much. In Week 1, they held Josh McCown to 11.4 points. In Week 2, they held Cam Newton to 11.8 points. In Week 3, Trevor Siemian was held to 9.5 points. 

That isn’t exactly an elite group of opposing quarterbacks. And before you point out that Newton is a former MVP, keep in mind that he hasn’t been good at all for fantasy owners yet this season, averaging 11 points per week. 

Ryan, meanwhile, hasn’t been spectacular from a fantasy perspective but has completed 68.8 percent of his passes and was in line for a solid Week 3 had he not thrown his first three interceptions of the season. Plus, his 867 passing yards this season put him on pace for 4,624 across a full season, which is on par with his production over the previous five seasons.

The only thing holding Ryan back this season, then, has been a lack of touchdowns. Four passing scores in three games is well below the pace needed to get anywhere near his total of 38 from a season ago. If you believe the touchdowns are coming—and I do—then Ryan is a trustworthy starting option at home against the Bills.

         

Sit Him: Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers

Big Ben facing a Baltimore Ravens defense giving up 13.7 fantasy points per week isn’t necessarily the reason to sit him. After all, Blake Bortles just shredded this defense.

No, the reason you sit Roethlisberger is because this game is on the road. Over the past two seasons, Big Ben is averaging 13.1 fantasy points on the road and 23.5 fantasy points at home. Starting Roethlisberger on the road in solid matchups has become a gamble.

There’s little reason to start him against a tougher matchup away from home.

         

Start Him: Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons

You might be inclined to sit Freeman against a Buffalo defense giving up just 10.7 fantasy points to opposing running backs per week.

Ignore that inclination. For one, you probably can’t afford to sit a player like Freeman, a weekly RB1 lock. He’s a must-start player and is averaging a cool 17.2 points per week. But he’s also really good at home, averaging 18.1 fantasy points in Atlanta over his past nine regular-season contests.

Regardless of the matchup, you start Freeman. 

       

Sit Him: Theo Riddick and Ameer Abdullah, RB, Detroit Lions

The Minnesota Vikings have been absurd against opposing running backs this season, giving up just 8.6 points per week to the position. That included holding superstar Le’Veon Bell to just 9.1 points in Week 2. And the Vikings are third in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (62.7) as well.

Neither Riddick nor Abdullah are safe enough bets to be considered matchup-proof. Thus, they should remain planted firmly on your bench this week.

           

Start Him: Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

Washington hasn’t been accommodating to opposing wide receivers, holding Oakland’s talented group to just seven receptions for 40 yards last week. That makes Hill a player some fantasy players will perhaps be wary of in Week 4.

Fret not. While he’ll attract his fair share of attention from Josh Norman, the Chiefs are creative when it comes to getting Hill involved. He may see some carries or wide-receiver screens. In three weeks, he has 16 receptions, six carries and 22 targets, and few players can do more with less than the explosive Hill. 

Every week you start him, there will be a certain boom-or-bust quality to Hill, because so much of his value will come from big plays. But given that Hill set an NFL record by scoring a touchdown of 60 or more yards in five straight games between the 2016 season and Week 1 of this year, well, few players are safer bets to come through with a big play.

        

Sit Him: Jeremy Maclin, WR, Baltimore Ravens

Maclin is a fringe flex option in general, but against a Pittsburgh defense giving up a minuscule 8.8 fantasy points to opposing wideouts per week, it’s a pretty easy call to leave him on your bench. 

Another factor: 55 percent of Maclin‘s fantasy value this season has come from his two touchdowns. That’s incredibly unsustainable, and the fact that he’s caught just seven passes for 95 yards despite being Baltimore’s top option in the passing game should be concerning to fantasy players.

        

Start Him: Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots

Sure, the Carolina Panthers are giving up just 2.4 fantasy points to opposing tight ends per week. That doesn’t matter. If you ever sit Gronkowski and he’s not hurt, you should be banned from fantasy football for life. For life!

        

Sit Him: Marcedes Lewis, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars

It will be tempting to start Lewis after his three-touchdown performance in London. But exercise restraint: For the season, Lewis has just four receptions for 62 yards. That means that 74.3 percent of his fantasy value has come from those touchdowns.

The New York Jets, meanwhile, haven’t been terrible against tight ends, giving up 14 receptions for 132 yards and a score in three weeks. The 6.4 points they are giving up to the position per week has been above average. 

Don’t overreact to Lewis. If he becomes a more consistent threat in Jacksonville’s offense, by all means, make him a regular starter. Until then, there are better options available. 

                  

All fantasy stats and points-against averages via Yahoo Sports.

Read more Fantasy Football news on NerdyFootball.com

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Bass Pro Start Em Sit Em

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