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Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Week 14: Smart Matchup Plays, Sleepers and More

Fantasy Football
December 8, 2015

While fun, the initial draft, trades and the waiver wire pale in comparison to matchup analysis and proper sleeper usage this late in the fantasy football season.

Last week, Tennessee Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota proved a matchup can trump all else by posting a whopping 35 points on the struggling Jacksonville Jaguars. Elsewhere, sleeper quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick of the New York Jets slung his way to 25 points.

The lengthy, grueling season continues to inch toward closure for owners who, unlike teams, don’t get a bye week.

Below, let’s provide a helping hand by running over some value comparisons and verdicts before some start-sit gems to target.

 

QB    

Matchup to Exploit: Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. NO)

At this point, it’s time to start almost anyone who lines up against the New Orleans Saints. 

Coaching changes didn’t work. New Orleans entered Week 13 giving up the most points to quarterbacks, then let Cam Newton of the Carolina Panthers roll for 35 points.

While a rookie, Jameis Winston of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers can do similar damage. He posted 18 points against the Saints back in Week 2, a great sign for the upcoming matchup considering the Saints are much worse and he’s now much more experienced.

Winston has five outings of 17 or more points over his last seven outings, giving him a reliable floor. Given a matchup against the Saints, the ceiling is quite hard to figure out—but it’s high.

 

Sleeper: Blaine Gabbert, San Francisco 49ers (at CLE)

Yes, this is where the wild fantasy season has owners. 

Blaine Gabbert is in a mini career renaissance with the San Francisco 49ers. Over his four recent starts, he’s posted 14 or more points, saving the best for last by way of a 24-point outburst against the Chicago Bears.

Maybe Gabbert‘s past and the struggles of the 49ers will scare some away. It shouldn’t, thoughnot as he heads into a game against the Cleveland Browns. The Browns allowed the fourth-most points to the position before Cincinnati’s Andy Dalton went for 23 over the weekend.

That number isn’t so outlandish for Gabbert when one takes everything into account.

 

RB  

Matchup to Exploit: Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers (vs. ATL)

Jonathan Stewart of the Carolina Panthers took his sweet time making a noticeable difference for fantasy owners this year, but since Week 6 he’s posted double digits in all but two games.

Stewart now has 15 or more points in three of his last four games and looks like one of fantasy’s most reliable producers for the rest of the season.

It gets better—he next dances with the Atlanta Falcons, the team that entered last week coughing up the fourth-most points to the position. Tampa Bay’s Doug Martin posted 13 on the unit to keep the rank in the same range.

Now it’s Stewart’s turn. He has yet to play his division rival this year, but the first encounter should be a big win for his owners.

 

Sleeper: Shaun Draughn, San Francisco 49ers (at CLE)

It’s becoming increasingly difficult to find sleepers at running back this late in the season, which is why it’s wise to double up on the 49ers here with running back Shaun Draughn.

Most of it, though, has to do with Draughn‘s surefire usage rates and talent.

Draughn has now carried the ball at least 12 times in each of his past four games and has seen reliable targets through the air. He’s scored seven or more points in each game, with last week the “breakout” as he went for 14.

Against the miserable Browns, also one of the worst teams on average against backs, the journeyman should have a huge day. Cincinnati’s Jeremy Hill didn’t have any problems in a committee approach posting 15 points last weekend while his quarterback went off.

Draughn isn’t even in a committee, with Carlos Hyde out for an unknown amount of time.

 

WR  

Matchup to Exploit: Sammy Watkins, Buffalo Bills (at PHI)

There might not be a more frustrating fantasy wideout than Sammy Watkins of the Buffalo Bills. 

He’s gone for 16 or more points in three of his last five games, but the two exceptions saw him total just four points. This means, in essence, he’s a matchup-based play whether owners want to admit it or not.

The good news? Watkins has the perfect matchup in Week 14 against the defensively inept Philadelphia Eagles, who entered Week 13 allowing the most points to wideouts. Danny Amendola of the New England Patriots continued the trend with a 13-point outburst.

In a game sure to feature plenty of passing, Watkins seems a lock to score well and flirt with the top score at his spot when the dust settles on Week 14.

 

Sleeper: Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks (at BAL)

Inexplicably, Seattle Seahawks wideout Doug Baldwin continues to sit around with a 57.5 ownership percentage despite the obvious proof the team continues to take to the air more often and with greater success.

Over his last four games, Baldwin has outbursts of 19, 32 and 21 points, with a six-point dud smacked in there for good measure.

Perhaps more impressive is the fact that Baldwin has five touchdowns over his last two games, meaning the offense continues to look his way where it matters most. This meshes well with the fact that the Baltimore Ravens also sit as one of the league’s worst teams against wideouts from a fantasy standpoint.

It all adds up to Baldwin being a sleeper whom owners cannot continue to ignore.

 

TE  

Matchup to Exploit: Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs (vs. SD)

Owners don’t have a choice but to roll with Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce on a week-to-week basis. 

Week 1 showed why when he exploded for 22 points. The problem, though, is the fact that he’s been to double digits just three more times this year.

Those who own Kelce have to hope a fourth is on the way thanks to an encounter with the San Diego Chargers. The defense held him to four points back in Week 11 but still entered this past weekend as the unit allowing the sixth-most points to the position.

A rematch at home should work wonders for Kelce and his owners.

 

Sleeper: Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. NO)

Remember Austin Seferian-Jenkins?

He’s sitting at 15.1 percent owned because he’s spent most of the season injured, but like Kelce, a Week 1 output of 23 points showed what he can do.

ASJ got his feet back under him this past weekend with three points. Now he heads into a cupcake of a matchup against the Saints. New Orleans also allowed the most points to tight ends before last weekend, where Greg Olsen might have forced it to stay that way with his 10 points.

With a rookie quarterback needing a big target to lean on, ASJ should have a breakout game after getting back into the swing of things.

 

All scoring info courtesy of ESPN standard leagues, as is points-against info and ownership stats as of December 7. Statistics courtesy of ESPN.

 

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