If Thursday night is any indicator, Week 4 will infuriate numerous fantasy football managers.
Without Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown posted his lowest yardage tally (42) since Dec. 30, 2012. On the other side, an injured Steve Smith Sr. finished with 24 yards after back-to-back games with at least 10 catches and 150 yards.
But, hey, great night for anyone desperate/psychic enough to start Kamar Aiken, who compiled 77 yards and a score after not receiving a single target last week. Welcome to the maddening world of fantasy football.
Let’s take a look of Week 4’s Vegas odds, courtesy of Odds Shark, before examining a few interesting fantasy cases.
Andy Dalton, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. Those are the only two quarterbacks with more ESPN.com fantasy points than Andy Dalton through three weeks.
The Cincinnati Bengals quarterback has also led his team to a 3-0 start. Last weekend, he shredded the Baltimore Ravens for 383 passing yards and four touchdowns, three through the air and one on the ground. Allow ESPN’s Trey Wingo to once more group the polarizing passer with two of the NFL‘s all-time greats:
Everyone is acting like a toddler learned to dunk, but Dalton threw for 4,293 yards and 33 touchdowns in 2013. He enjoyed an even hotter three-game stretch that October, amassing 1,034 yards, 11 touchdowns and two interceptions.
He threw eight interceptions in the next three games.
Dalton is what he is. An inconsistent, but sneakily competent quarterback surrounded by enough talent to succeed. He won’t remain this effective all year, so continue to treat him as a matchup play but potential top-15 option.
The Kansas City Chiefs’ No. 27 passing defense is a misleading measure. While they have relinquished an NFL-high 10 passing touchdowns, they also faced Peyton Manning and Rodgers and limited the opposition to a 59.8 completion percentage. Hot start aside, Dalton is still not on that level.
Don’t expect another prolific outing, but there are worse options out there.
Projections: 20-of-32, 245 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT
C.J. Anderson, RB, Denver Broncos
One of the few bright spots from Thursday night, Justin Forsett ran for 150 yards after accruing 165 total yards through the opening three weeks. Can C.J. Anderson, another disappointing high draft pick, follow the path to redemption?
Unlike Baltimore, the Denver Broncos have utilized an ineffective two-head backfield between Anderson and Ronnie Hillman. While Hillman‘s 3.1 yards per carry won’t lock down a full gig, it beats Anderson’s 2.3 yards per rush.
After his third straight dud, some owners are seriously considering the advice Anderson relayed to Mark Kiszla of the Denver Post.
“You can sit me for 17 weeks,” Anderson said. “It would not bother me one bit. I don’t care. I saw something on ESPN: ‘Is C.J. Anderson a fantasy bust?’ I wish I could call ESPN and say: ‘Tell them to drop me. … Every owner can drop me.'”
Dropping him is extreme, but take his initial advice and bench him if holstering a decent alternative. Since getting shredded by Carlos Hyde in Week 1, the Minnesota Vikings limited the Detroit Lions to 38 rushing yards and the San Diego Chargers to 90. There’s the risk of Anderson going off as soon as everyone gives up, but this is a rusher drafted based on his surroundings and an eight-game burst.
Projections: 13 Rushes, 2 Receptions, 50 Yards
James Jones, WR, Green Bay Packers
Scoring four touchdowns on 15 targets is unsustainable, especially from a 31-year-old wide receiver the Green Bay Packers dumped last year. He won’t score 20 times this year, but his workload will rise without Davante Adams.
The perceived benefactor of Jordy Nelson‘s season-ending injury left Monday night’s game early after reinjuring his ankle. With Adams out of the picture, Jones caught seven of his eight targets for 139 yards and another score.
While Adams ruled out a high ankle sprain, head coach Mike McCarthy labeled his chances of playing Sunday as “slight” to ESPN.com’s Rob Demovsky.
“He’s going to have to jump around tomorrow, jump through some hoops,” McCarthy said on Friday morning. “We’ll see how it goes.”
Even if Adams plays hurt, Jones will operate as Rodgers’ No. 2 wideout against the San Francisco 49ers, who have yielded a 70.3 completion percentage and 10.0 yards per attempt. Ben Roethlisberger and Carson Palmer each exceeded 300 passing yards after the 49ers surprisingly stymied Minnesota.
Also, Rodgers is good at football. The matchup and opportunity cement Jones as a must-start receiver in all leagues.
Projections: 8 Targets, 6 Receptions, 110 Yards
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