The first two weeks of the NFL season are primarily a time to rely heavily on preseason expectations and fantasy football rankings. But by Week 3, it’s time to start evaluating what we’ve seen on the field and adjust our expectations.
There are still plenty of superstars to rely on, but there are also a few unexpected players who have jumped out to hot starts worth considering in your fantasy lineups.
As we prepare for Week 3, here’s a look at the updated odds and predictions from around the league, as well as a few projections for fantasy stars this week.
Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints
Drew Brees is a must-play every week in season-long leagues, and he should be strongly considered on a weekly basis in daily leagues as well.
The New Orleans Saints own one of the league’s worst defenses, which means Brees will likely need to air it out to keep up with opposing offenses. This is especially true against a division rival in the Atlanta Falcons and an opposing quarterback, Matt Ryan, who is capable of matching Brees’ production.
According to Odds Shark, the over/under for this Monday night matchup is set at 53.5 points—the highest total of the weekend.
The Falcons also offer Brees a favorable defensive matchup this week. In the first two weeks, Jameis Winston of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Derek Carr of the Oakland Raiders combined for seven passing touchdowns and just one interceptions against Atlanta’s secondary.
Atlanta limited Brees to just two touchdowns in their two matchups a season ago, but he eclipsed the 300-yard mark in each game while leading the Saints to 51 points in the two games combined (both wins).
All of these factors make Brees a likely candidate to light up the scoreboard on Monday night and potentially put him in position to be this week’s high scorer in fantasy.
Stat projection: 32-of-45, 325 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT
David Johnson, RB, Arizona Cardinals
David Johnson was a preseason favorite in the fantasy football rankings, and he’s lived up to expectations so far. But he has the potential to elevate his game to a new level if his workload increases.
Through two games Johnson has just 28 rushing attempts, primarily due to the situations that the Cardinals have found themselves in during these contests.
In Week 1, Arizona was unexpectedly playing from behind for most of the game, which forced the team to rely more heavily on the passing attack (Carson Palmer had 37 attempts). Johnson’s touches were limited in Week 2 thanks to a blowout victory over the Buccaneers
Due to these unique circumstances, Johnson has just seven second-half rushing attempts this season.
This week’s matchup against the Buffalo Bills could finally provide an opportunity for Johnson to be the workhorse and approach or surpass 20 carries.
The Bills are strong enough on both sides of the ball to keep the game relatively close, but Arizona is still a solid 3.5-point favorite. If they take an early lead, Johnson should see a significant second-half workload to help run the clock.
Stat projection: 18 rushing attempts, 75 rushing yards, 4 rececptions, 40 receiving yards, 1 TD
Sterling Shepard, WR, New York Giants
If you haven’t already, it’s time to buy into the Sterling Shepard hype.
The rookie receiver has already emerged as a viable weapon in the New York Giants offense and clearly has the trust of quarterback Eli Manning.
Through Week 2, Shepard is tied for second on the team with 12 targets.
The Washington Redskins offer a favorable matchup for the Giants passing attack. Through the first two weeks, Washington is allowing 8.8 yards per pass attempt, the fifth-worst rate in the NFL.
Odell Beckham Jr. remains the go-to weapon for Manning, but ESPN’s Britt McHenry reported that Beckham will be shadowed by Redskins cornerback Josh Norman.
Manning likely won’t avoid Norman’s side of the field entirely, but with him focusing on Beckham it should lead to an increase in targets for Shepard.
Stat projection: 7 receptions, 91 yards, 1 TD
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