Fantasy football players should be equipped with plenty of knowledge by Week 9 of the NFL season, at least in theory.
The problem is, theories don’t account for how unpredictable fantasy football can be in actuality.
After all, fantasy players are coming off a Week 8 where Tyreek Hill and Quincy Enunwa were better than A.J. Green, Demaryius Thomas and DeAndre Hopkins at the wide receiver position, Mike Gillislee and Robert Kelley were better than David Johnson and Lamar Miller at running back, and Josh McCown was better than Cam Newton and Andrew Luck at quarterback.
The best anyone can do at this point is analyze the data and hope for some luck on Sundays. With that in mind, here is a look at a projection for the top 50 points-per-reception league players in Week 9, factoring opponent and overall skill level into the rankings.
Schedule
Rankings
Players to Watch
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys
Rookie running back Ezekiel Elliott has been nearly unstoppable in his first NFL season, and that won’t change in Week 9 against the hapless Cleveland Browns.
The Ohio State product ran for 96 yards and added 52 receiving yards in Sunday’s win over the Philadelphia Eagles, and that marked something of a downtick in production considering he topped 130 rushing yards four consecutive weeks prior to that. He has lived up to the billing as the No. 4 overall pick and tops the league with 799 rushing yards.
The combination of Elliott’s power in the hole and elusiveness in the open field with an offensive line that Football Outsiders has as its No. 1 run-blocking unit in the NFL will prove too much against Cleveland.
Former Eagles Pro Bowl linebacker Seth Joyner said Elliott is already better than Emmitt Smith when he appeared on Monday’s 94WIP Midday Show with Joe DeCamara and Jon Ritchie, via Andrew Porter of CBS Philly:
If I was one on one in the hole against Barry Sanders, I’d probably almost crap my pants. I’m just being honest. When you’re talking about running backs, he’s the guy that I least liked playing against. But if I was ever in the hole against Emmitt one on one, no problem. No worries. I’m not worried about that at all. And when I see Zeke Elliott, the way he runs. Oh my gosh. He runs with an attitude. He is what I call a generational running back. You only see a guy like that once every few generations.
The Browns defense that will attempt to stop that generational talent was an abysmal 31st in the league in rushing yards allowed per game after Sunday’s action. This is a complete mismatch, and the 6-1 Cowboys will seize an early lead against the 0-8 Browns and ride Elliott to work the clock and gradually put the opposition away.
Jimmy Graham, TE, Seattle Seahawks
Tight end Jimmy Graham has plagued fantasy owners with some inconsistent performances, but those who trust him in Week 9 will benefit from a solid showing.
Graham tallied just 34 receiving yards on Sunday against the New Orleans Saints and 53 yards the week before that against the Arizona Cardinals. However, he notched a combined 302 receiving yards against the San Francisco 49ers, New York Jets and Atlanta Falcons.
Now he faces a Buffalo Bills defense that just yielded 109 receiving yards and a touchdown to tight end Rob Gronkowski in Week 8.
While Graham is not Gronkowski (who is?), the performance was a testament to the Bills’ struggles against tight ends in general. Football Outsiders ranked Buffalo as the 23rd-best defense in the league against tight ends in its ratings through Week 7, and that was before Gronkowski‘s outing.
Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass in his last three games, so he will look to re-establish the passing attack with some safer throws to the tight end. Graham will be waiting against a vulnerable defense.
Jay Ajayi, RB, Miami Dolphins
Playing Jay Ajayi is simply a matter of riding the hot hand.
He exploded for 214 rushing yards and a touchdown against the Bills and 204 rushing yards and two touchdowns against the Pittsburgh Steelers in his last two games.
However, his next opponent is the Jets, who were first in the league in rushing yards allowed per game after Sunday’s contests. That is why Ajayi isn’t higher than his No. 11 ranking after setting the league on fire the past two games.
Still, SportsCenter noted what kind of historical company Ajayi is keeping after his last two outings:
The Dolphins will ride the powerful back early and often against the Jets. While he won’t crack 200 yards again facing the formidable group, he will put up impressive numbers for the third straight game.
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