When it comes to Week 14 fantasy football decisions, owners cannot afford to wait as long as Dwight Freeney did to make a difference.
Freeney posted the game-winning strip on Thursday Night Football to lead the Arizona Cardinals over the Minnesota Vikings. The former’s Carson Palmer posted a game-high 20 points in an elite matchup as expected.
Matchups play a major part of the role when it comes to late-season showdowns with everything on the line. Below, let’s look at projections for each position based on a variety of factors and point out elite matchups.
Week 14 Schedule
Quarterbacks
It’s a bit of an odd week at quarterback with Palmer out of the picture, as a former backup and rookie almost top the list.
For good reason, too. The former backup would be Tyrod Taylor of the Buffalo Bills, a guy who isn’t even 63 percent owned despite outings of 25 and 28 points in recent weeks.
Taylor is one of the league’s most explosive players at the position when healthy, something he’s flashed as of late. He’s one to trust going into a matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles because the defense allows the third-most points to quarterbacks.
The rookie? Try Jameis Winston of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The idea of leaning on a first-year player might not be the most comforting, but Winston has double digits in very game this year with 18 or more points five times.
A sixth should be on the way against the New Orleans Saints, the team coughing up the most points to quarterbacks. The number might get thrown around a lot but it bears repeating—the Saints have allowed 21 passing touchdowns over their last five games.
Running Backs
On the same side as Winston in the Tampa Bay-New Orleans encounter is running back Doug Martin, who figures to top the list with Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson out of the picture.
This might not come as a shock to some, but those Saints almost give up the most amount of points to running backs, too, coming in third with an average of more than 20 allowed per game.
Quietly, Martin sits as fantasy’s third-highest scorer at the position. He’s hit double digits six times this year with a high of 33, though last week he hit on 13 and his first score since Week 5.
Martin might have a scoring streak on his hands by the time he’s done with the Saints.
Charcandrick West of the Kansas City Chiefs doesn’t look like the most reliable name around after no trips to double digits over his past three games and Spencer Ware eating into some of the workload.
Still, West remains the lead back in the new-look committee, if not ready to take it over by himself. It’s hard to ignore his explosiveness that produced 18, 17 and 27 points earlier this season.
It’s also hard to ignore a matchup with the San Diego Chargers, a team letting up the fourth-most points to backs. Owners have to ride West all things considered, committee or not.
Wide Receivers
This shouldn’t come as a shock given some of the details above, but Bills wideout Sammy Watkins isn’t one to dismiss this weekend.
Watkins has the ability to drive owners downright mad, as he did starting in Week 10 when he scored one and three points over two games. Before that stretch, though, he posted 22 and after it has 27 and 16.
While an elite talent, it seems Watkins still relies on the right matchup, which he certainly has against the Eagles, owners of a secondary allowing the most points to wide receivers. Philadelphia has allowed 12 touchdowns to wideouts over its last five games.
Owners have every right to scoff at the idea of Seattle Seahawks wideout Doug Baldwin, who went to double digits just once in his first eight games.
Something changed after the bye, though, because Baldwin has 19, 32 and 21 points in three of his last four as the Seahawks have hit the “playoffs” button and started to light it up.
The above trends in mind, Baldwin looks like a goldmine against a Baltimore Ravens team allowing the fifth-most points to wideouts. Baldwin is far and away the top target in Seattle who will continue to see most of the action.
Tight Ends
Owners get one of the best back this weekend with Cincinnati Bengals tight end Tyler Eifert.
According to Geoff Hobson of Bengals.com, Eifert was a full participant in practice this week. This means he’s good to go against the Pittsburgh Steelers, the team allowing the seventh-most points to tight ends.
Eifert is the third-highest scorer at the position and has three outings of not just double digits, but of 21 or more points. Similar production against a defense that struggles against his position wouldn’t be a shock.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins of the Buccaneers isn’t the most reliable name around, but he’s back and healthy, which should give owners hope when recalling his 23-point outburst from Week 1.
If ASJ is to ever come close to replicating those numbers again this season it will come against the Saints, who also allow the most points to tight ends.
Defense/Special Teams
As hinted, it looks like the Seahawks are in playoff form already.
This applies to the defense, too, fantasy’s fourth-scoring unit at the position. After four double-digit outings before the Week 8 bye, Seattle posted another this past weekend with 12 points.
As if written on a script for owners in need, Seattle’s next opponent, Baltimore, just allowed an opposing defense to reach 15 points. Three of the last four have scored eight or more against the unit.
The Seattle defense against a team starting a backup quarterback and running back without its top receiver speaks for itself.
Kickers
It looks like another strong week for Denver Broncos kicker Brandon McManus.
McManus didn’t have more than five points over his last four outings, but he’s got a nice floor for owners to lean on each week, and the upside is his outbursts of 18, 12, 12, 13 and 11 points this season.
Output in the same neighborhood against the Oakland Raiders this weekend wouldn’t be a surprise.
Not only does Oakland allow the second-most points to the position, McManus squared off with the Raiders back in Week 5 and posted 12 points. Look for more of the same because he’s at home for the rematch.
All scoring info courtesy of ESPN standard leagues, as is points-against info and ownership stats as of Dec. 11.
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