Fantasy football drafts seem so important every August, but players such as Colin Kaepernick, Tim Hightower, Taylor Gabriel and Clive Walford end up deciding critical Week 12 games when crunch time of the actual season rolls around.
Any experienced fantasy football player knows the success or failure of the season depends on a number of factors, not the least of which is luck. After all, avoiding injuries and being high on the waiver wire when that unexpected superstar emerges is equally or even more important than snagging Le’Veon Bell on draft day.
The fantasy playoffs are right around the corner as Week 13 approaches, and making the right call with your lineup could be the difference between eventual bragging rights and a playoff-less campaign. After all, a breakout performance from someone on your bench won’t help you get into the playoffs.
With that in mind, here is a look at a projection for the top 50 standard-league players in Week 13, factoring opponent and overall skill level into the rankings.
Schedule
Rankings
Players to Watch
Stud: David Johnson, RB, Arizona Cardinals
The Arizona Cardinals are 4-6-1 and one of the biggest disappointments in the league after reaching the NFC Championship Game last season.
That has overshadowed the fact David Johnson has been the most consistent playmaker in the league, but fantasy players have taken notice. The running back has 921 rushing yards, 613 receiving yards and 13 total touchdowns on the year and has topped 100 yards from scrimmage in all 11 of his games.
Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk cited the NFL and said Johnson and Edgerrin James are the only two players in NFL history to reach the 100-yard mark in the first 11 games of a season.
Matthew Berry of ESPN noted Johnson would be a valuable fantasy player even as just a receiver:
Johnson will face a Washington defense that was tied for 18th in the league in points allowed per game and an abysmal 25th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game, as of Monday. Fantasy players just saw what an elite running back can do against it when Ezekiel Elliott tallied 120 total yards and two touchdowns on Thanksgiving in the Dallas Cowboys’ 31-26 victory over Washington.
Now it is Johnson’s turn to exploit the vulnerable defensive front.
Don’t Forget About Me: Carlos Hyde, RB, San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers running back Carlos Hyde appeared well on his way to a productive season when he racked up 429 rushing yards and six touchdowns in his first six games.
However, he didn’t play from Oct. 16 to Nov. 13 because of a shoulder injury, which derailed a promising fantasy campaign.
He hasn’t scored since his return, but that will change on Sunday against the 2-9 Chicago Bears, especially since Chicago will need to devote additional defensive attention toward slowing Kaepernick, who has four straight games with more than 200 passing yards. The quarterback also ran for 113 yards on Sunday in a loss to the Miami Dolphins.
The running threat of Kaepernick will freeze the Chicago linebackers for a brief moment on various plays, which will be all Hyde needs to explode for a big day.
San Francisco head coach Chip Kelly recently indicated Hyde will see plenty of carries down the stretch, which is music to the ears of fantasy players, per Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com:
It’s just overall the way our team is built. We’re built to run the football. Carlos is the main focus of what we’re doing offensively. We have a running quarterback that complements him and then our play-action pass complements that, and when we’re running the ball successfully and play-action pass off of that, we’re very good as an offensive football team. But to think we’re going to go into a game and throw the ball 60 times and win, that’s not a game plan for success for us.
The Bears’ run defense was tied for 18th in the league in points allowed per game and 17th in rushing yards allowed per game, as of Monday. San Francisco will jump out to a quick lead against that mediocre group and ride Hyde to a productive day as it works the clock and earns a rare victory.
Rookie on the Rise: Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints
The explosive New Orleans Saints scored 49 points on Sunday, and rookie Michael Thomas led the team in targets (10), receiving yards (108), touchdown catches (two) and receptions (nine).
By contrast, there were zero targets for Brandin Cooks, which is head-turning for fantasy players looking at New Orleans’ receiving corps. While it is premature to write Cooks off as a potential No. 1 option, it is clear quarterback Drew Brees is growing more comfortable with Thomas as the receiver’s first season progresses.
Evan Silva of Rotoworld provided some stats suggesting just that:
The Ohio State product has 789 receiving yards and seven touchdown catches on the season, and Rotoworld and NBC Sports fantasy analyst Josh Norris said he loved him as a fantasy option during his “amazing rookie year.”
Next up in that amazing year is a date with a middling Detroit Lions pass defense that was 14th in the league in passing yards allowed per game, as of Monday.
The Saints will not hesitate to throw the ball against Detroit considering Brees has attempted more than 30 passes every game but one this season, when he threw 29 against the Denver Broncos. That will mean plenty of opportunities for the thriving Thomas, and fantasy players will be the beneficiary in Week 13.
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