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Fantasy Football: Streaming Quarterbacks and Defenses to Target for Week 1

Fantasy Football
August 31, 2016

We have developed a unique language of our own in this subculture of fantasy football. One term we often employ is “streaming”—which is the concept of leveraging the waiver wire to source widely available commodities in our lineups based on context found through research like specific matchup factors and encouraging Vegas indicators. 

Streaming isn’t applicable in every fantasy format—in deep and challenging 14-team formats you might not find viable quarterback options available in a given week, but in most 10- and even 12-team leagues this strategy proves more realistic and often successful over the season-long sample when applied with some savvy. There are often helpful assets available in our leagues, we just have to look for them.

For this piece, we’ve identified several signal-callers drafted past the top 12 picks at the position on average in ESPN drafts that could prove productive in Week 1. We’ve also found some choice defensive options to consider for this inaugural weekend of the NFL.

In terms of using intel from Vegas for this process, we can look to the biggest implied point totals of the week. For example, in Indianapolis the Colts play host to the Detroit Lions in a game with a projected point total just over 50 points, per Odds Shark, suggesting a shootout could ensue. This makes shares of the Detroit Lions’ Matthew Stafford quite intriguing as a fantasy prospect.

As for the defensive side of the ball, we can leverage the point projection system that Vegas and offshore sportsbooks produce each week in seeking streaming defense and special teams (D/ST) options. The foundation of the idea has us favoring favorites in games with point totals under 46.5 points.

The results showed from a study the author conducted of the 2014 season reveals favorites in games below this threshold ended up in the top 10 in ESPN fantasy leagues 49 percent of the time. Here is a simple breakdown of the quadrants for this concept:

  • Favorites in games with a point total under 46.5: 49 percent in the top 10 of fantasy D/ST units
  • Favorites in games with a point total over 46.5: 38 percent top-10 rate
  • Underdogs in games with a point total under 46.5: 29 percent top-10 rate
  • Underdogs in games over a point total over 46.5: 21 percent top-10 rate

The results of the research above are merely one approach for us to sift through the player pool for helpful assets. We’re looking at every possible predictive angle available to us when seeking the best streaming options in a given week. Please join us as we survey the market for streaming options at quarterback and defense for Week 1.

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