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Fantasy Football 2017: 1st-Round Mock Draft and Winning Strategy

Fantasy Football
August 7, 2017

Here’s a bit of bad news for everyone hoping to get an upper hand on fantasy football competitors with meticulous preseason research: Everyone else is doing it, too.

No longer a niche hobby, fantasy football is now a massive enterprise capturing mainstream recognition. And sure, many casual players just pick players from their favorite team. While the idea to never take a kicker before the last round is common knowledge to any seasoned player, it’s repeated ad nauseam because inexperienced participants commit the cardinal sin every year.

Maybe it’s still possible to dominate a family or free public league after scarfing down a few articles. In a long-running group of serious players, that’s the minimum requirement.

But hey, everyone needs to start somewhere. Let’s keep things simple with an early first-round mock draft before examining some general draft guidelines.

              

Round 1 Mock Draft

1. Le’Veon Bell, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

2. David Johnson, RB, Arizona Cardinals 

3. Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys

4. Antonio Brown, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

5. Odell Beckham Jr., WR, New York Giants

6. Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons

7. LeSean McCoy, RB, Buffalo Bills

8. Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

9. A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

10. Melvin Gordon, RB, Los Angeles Chargers

11. Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons

12. DeMarco Murray, RB, Tennessee Titans

        

These dozen picks were simulated using Fantasy Pros’ Draft Wizard. The settings used standard scoring, with the software selecting based on average draft positions (ADP) and pre-draft rankings from multiple sources.

Certain years have drafters hoping for a late pick instead of early spot. Snatching two studs occasionally beats reaching for someone with the fourth slot only a hair better than the ninth choice. 

This is not one of those years. Le’Veon Bell, David Johnson and Ezekiel Elliott form a clear top tier of running backs who will fly off the board. Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham Jr. and Julio Jones should round out the top six, especially in point-per-reception (PPR) formats.

Randomly assigned the 10th slot, this writer never stood a chance at snagging any of them. Even landing a safe stud in LeSean McCoy or wideout with league-winning upside, like Mike Evans and A.J. Green, was too good to be true.

Instead, the choice boiled down to Melvin Gordon, Jordy Nelson—who went 14th in the simulation—and Devonta Freeman. All are strong choices, but none is particularly a money-in-the-bank building block.

The Los Angeles Chargers running back certainly comes with risk. He owed his breakout campaign to volume, averaging a tame 3.9 yards per carry and ranking 29th at the position in both Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement and Defense-adjusted Value Over Average.

After leading shrewd drafters to the fantasy playoffs, Gordon got hurt early in Week 14 and missed the final three games. Nevertheless, he finished with 1,416 total yards and 12 touchdowns. He never left owners empty-handed when healthy for all 60 minutes, compiling 470 yards in those four contests where he didn’t reach the end zone.

The first round is a huge leap for someone who offered 13 games of success, but the 24-year-old could still discover another gear. He averaged 4.7 yards per rush over his last five full games, during which he tallied 775 yards from scrimmage. Had he completed his sophomore campaign, Gordon would probably instead be battling McCoy for the seventh seat.

             

Strategy Section

Stability Early, Upside Late

In all honesty, the first round shouldn’t require as much scrutiny as the later action. And anyone reading about the top-12 picks better not spend the full time before choosing. This is supposed to be the easy portion of the draft.

Nobody is going to outthink the competition during the early rounds. Everyone else knows Marshawn Lynch is back and Leonard Fournette is a potential superstar. Both running backs are marked up considerably, probably to the point where snagging one necessitates overpaying.

In snake drafts, the first few picks are about building a stable foundation. Wait for the later rounds to swing for the fences.

Consider Alshon Jeffery, who has a No. 33 consensus ADP according to FantasyPros. The third-round sticker tag is far too rich for someone with 106 receptions and six touchdowns over the last two seasons combined. Health is a skill, and he missed 15 games during those campaigns.

Those troubles have surfaced already; a shoulder strain sidelined him in practice before returning on Sunday. Per Eagles Wire’s Turron Davenport, head coach Doug Pederson is obviously more focused on having him suit up for Week 1’s opener against Washington.

“I can’t tell you,” Pederson said regarding Jeffery’s availability for Thursday’s preseason game “I haven’t set the rosters yet. We’re not playing games for a while, we just want to get him ready for Washington.”

If he falls, Jeffery warrants the gamble as low-end second wideout. His current price, however, doesn’t account enough for the risk. The same can be said for Keenan Allen, who has played 38 games in four seasons.

High-reward picks are vital to winning a championship, but save most of them for the middle and later rounds. Although boring veterans are not as fun to draft, Larry Fitzgerald and Frank Gore will deliver a solid return on investment while giving drafters more comfort to chase this year’s Gordon later.

            

Draft Value, Not Positions

Numerous gamers, including many successful ones, will stick to a specific blueprint. Waiting on quarterback is in style. An emergence of studs has challenged the Zero RB plan, but PPR drafters may especially still load up on pass-catchers early. 

This isn’t a knock on those strategies. They can work when properly executed. Strictly adhering to them, however, can cause drafters to leave value on the table. That’s a no-no.

Quarterbacks are plentiful. A Matthew Stafford-Tyrod Taylor platoon can lead to fantasy glory if managed properly, and it’d require minimal draft capital which gamers could instead invest on skill players.

But if Drew Brees slips to the fifth round, why not pounce? 

He’s the perfect embodiment of the above desire for stability. Over the last nine years, the New Orleans Saints gunslinger has thrown at least 32 passing touchdowns with no fewer than 4,388 passing yards in each season.

As illustrated by Pro Football Focus’ fantasy football Twitter page, he’s the undisputed king of 300-yard games:

Barring an injury—he has missed two games in 11 seasons with the Saints—Brees will finish as a top-10 fantasy quarterback. Aside from owners swearing to never play fantasy again after losing a matchup because of an opposing kicker, there’s no a safer prediction in all of fantasy football. Pairing him with a pair of top-tier running backs and wideouts would create a formidable lineup.

This isn’t a plea to pursue Brees at all cost. Don’t panic and grab him right after leaguemates reach for Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady in the second round. For that matter, don’t get swept up in any position run unless someone remaining represents the end of a tier.

If everyone else keeps reading about the virtue of waiting on signal-callers, counteract their caution by stealing a stud at a discount. Every drafter’s main goal should be to leave the draft with the most possible value, so take it wherever it’s given.

Read more Fantasy Football news on NerdyFootball.com

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