With six teams down and a loaded slate still on the Week 12 horizon, owners won’t have a choice but to encounter unfavorable fantasy football matchups.
It’s all about the approach. For example, owners would have made a huge mistake last week if they had shied away from Houston Texans wideout DeAndre Hopkins, who played the New York Jets. In the end, he went for 23 points.
Owners who avoided Arizona Cardinals running back Chris Johnson, though, watched as he mustered six points against the Cincinnati Bengals.
It takes finesse to balance on the unfavorable tightrope. Below, let’s look at value comparisons at each position and how to play some unfavorable situations.
QB
Matchup to Trust: Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals (vs. STL)
Owners have every right to approach fantasy’s fifth-highest scoring quarterback with skepticism this week.
After all, Andy Dalton of the Cincinnati Bengals heads into an encounter with the St. Louis Rams, the team surrendering just the second-fewest points to the position. It’s important to note, though, that the Rams have faltered in recent weeks, having allowed four touchdowns to the position over their last two outings.
Dalton has failed to reach double digits just twice this season. He has 17 or more points eight times, with six occurrences of 21 or more points. The St. Louis pass rush may fluster him, but it won’t stop his weapons from quickly getting the ball in their hands and doing work while continuing to inflate his numbers in the process.
Matchup to Avoid: Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons (vs. MIN)
Indeed, it’s been the sort of season where Dalton is more trustworthy than Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan.
Ryan’s at home this week against the Minnesota Vikings, but it’s as iffy of a situation as it sounds like. Those Vikings surrender the eighth-fewest points to the spot and Ryan hasn’t exactly been reliable at home.
In fact, Ryan has managed double digits in nine games this year, but he’s also tossed eight interceptions on his home turf. He’s a turnover liability against a stingy defense in what should be a run-first affair, so owners can do better with a streaming option.
RB
Matchup to Trust: LeSean McCoy, Buffalo Bills (at KC)
The Kansas City Chiefs are a scary proposition for opposing running backs who don’t play for the Bengals. Cincinnati backs scored four touchdowns against the unit in Week 4, but otherwise, just one back has found paydirt against the Chiefs this year.
LeSean McCoy figures to skew the stats a bit, though.
The Buffalo Bills lead back has been healthy as of late and has 16 or more carries in every game since Week 6. To make it look even better, he’s scored in two of his past three.
McCoy is one of those rare backs who will produce against any defense when given chances. This will hold true, as it did in three consecutive tough matchups against the Miami Dolphins, New York Jets and New England Patriots, where he ripped off 15 or more points.
Matchup to Avoid: Frank Gore, Indianapolis Colts (vs. TB)
Formerly reliable running back Frank Gore, on the other hand, cannot be trusted in a tough situation.
Unfortunately, that is what he faces this week when his Indianapolis Colts collide with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, owners of a defense surrendering the 10th-fewest points to the position. Lovie Smith’s defense has coughed up four touchdowns to backs this year—the last of those coming in Week 3.
Gore’s been completely hit or miss this year, just like the approach of the offense and who lines up under center. He’s scored four times and hit double digits in three games, but the Colts haven’t had a 100-yard rusher in 44 games.
There’s no reason to believe Gore will break that streak in a tough situation—or provide viable production whatsoever.
WR
Matchup to Trust: Amari Cooper, Oakland Raiders (at TEN)
Rookies in a bad matchup usually produce a red flag for owners—for good reason, too—but this week, nobody should be afraid of Amari Cooper of the Oakland Raiders going against the Tennessee Titans.
The Titans have allowed just nine touchdowns this year to wideouts and none since Week 9, but Cooper’s bound to find viable production simply through usage.
Remember, he is one of the league’s top target hogs, having caught four or more passes in all but one game this season and breaking through for double digits five times for the surprising Raiders.
Keep in mind, too, that No. 1 wideouts such as T.Y. Hilton, Hopkins, Allen Robinson and Julio Jones have all posted solid fantasy outings against Tennessee. Rookie or not, Cooper will be the latest.
Matchup to Avoid: Brandon LaFell, New England Patriots (at DEN)
Each week, it seems New England Patriots wideout Brandon LaFell flies to the top of “breakout player” lists, only to let his budding 78.1 percent of owners down.
New England cannot stop losing offensive pieces, and yes, the ball has to go somewhere. It had gone to LaFell last year, but not so much this season, as he’s reached double-digits just once.
There’s no reason to expect LaFell to go for 10 or more points a second time, especially not in a matchup against the Denver Broncos.
Denver’s defense allows the fewest points to wideouts this year and has permitted just one touchdown. Tom Brady is Tom Brady and LaFell continues to climb the depth chart, but it’s not a situation to trust.
TE
Matchup to Trust: Gary Barnidge, Cleveland Brows (vs. BAL)
Gary Barnidge might be 30 years old and on the Cleveland Browns—a pair of traits usually a death knell to fantasy relevancy—but he’s once again one of the week’s most reliable players at any spot.
The on-paper outlook isn’t great at first glance because the Baltimore Ravens allow the fifth-fewest points to tight ends. But two sets of tight ends have reached double digits against the unit, and Barnidge himself happens to be one of those thanks to his eight catches for 139 yards and a score for 19 points back in Week 5.
Nothing much has changed for either side since. Barnidge has seven double-digit outings and qualifies as a matchup-proof play. Bonus points of confidence here because he’s already torched the Ravens once.
Matchup to Avoid: Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs (vs. BUF)
Kansas City’s Travis Kelce always sits on the receiving end of hype, but he’s the owner of just three touchdowns and three double-digit games this year.
Granted, the offense and those around him are more to blame, but his name alone and individual talent shouldn’t cause owners to turn a blind eye toward other factors.
Like, for example, that Kelce has to line up this weekend against the Buffalo Bills, who allow the seventh-fewest points to the position. Two tight ends have hit double digits against the Bills, but those belonged to Rob Gronkowski and Tyler Eifert—and the former was a no-show in Week 11 in the rematch.
If Gronk catching balls from Brady couldn’t get it done, don’t expect Kelce to have a big day, especially now that he suffered a tweak of the ankle in practice, too, according to ESPN’s Adam Teicher.
Owners need to ignore the big name and look elsewhere at the unreliable position.
All scoring info courtesy of ESPN standard leagues, as is points-against info and ownership stats as of November 28. Statistics courtesy of ESPN.
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