Going into Week 10, most every decision is tough on fantasy football owners.
Bye weeks continue to play a part. Owners might not miss San Francisco’s players, but losing Atlanta and Indianapolis pieces can hurt. The injury sheet is a laundry list of star names with Dion Lewis recently joining Arian Foster, Jamaal Charles, Le’Veon Bell and many more.
To top it all off, none of this has even mentioned matchups, a wild subcategory of its own that not only includes individuals, schemes and trends, but location, weather and Las Vegas projections.
So, no, owners cannot take blame for seeking a bit of help, especially this late in the Week 10 process. Here’s a look at value comparisons among top names and some difficult decisions.
QB
Difficult Decision to Make: Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos (vs. KC)
It’s come to this with Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning.
There were days when Manning was a must-start player no matter what, but the honor now goes to the Aaron Rodgers-esque players of the world. In fact, Manning isn’t even 100 percent owned anymore.
Manning has four single-digits outings this year as he rides his defense to wins. Over his last two weeks, he’s totaled 11 and 15 points and to date has two interceptions in four separate games.
So why start him? Manning’s best game of the season came on the road in Kansas City in Week 2, where he threw for three scores and a pick. The Chiefs have held opposing quarterbacks to single digits in three consecutive games, but that’s not impressive when the schedule says Minnesota, Pittsburgh (sans the starter) and Detroit.
This is a home game for Manning against a team he knows well and has already torched.
Situation to Avoid: Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans (vs. CAR)
The allure of starting Tennessee Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota is quite strong.
After all, Mariota just erupted for 32 points on four touchdown passes in his return from injury against the New Orleans Saints, giving him four double-digit outings on the year.
The problem is this week’s matchup is an encounter with the Carolina Panthers, the team surrendering the ninth-fewest points to the position. The unit did just give up 32 points last week, but that was to the aforementioned Rodgers—it was only the third time the unit permitted two or more touchdown passes in a game.
Mariota won’t hit that mark against the elite unit.
RB
Difficult Decision to Make: LeGarrette Blount, New England Patriots (at NYG)
It’s never easy to figure out what in the world New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick will do with his running backs.
Lewis, mentioned in the intro, seemed to solve the riddle once and for all this year by acting as the every-down back, but he’ll miss the rest of the season with an injury.
Does that make it LeGarrette Blount time? His 95.5 percent of owners have to hope so, although the Patriots could always get crazy with a James White or Brandon Bolden.
Regardless, owners must gamble on Blount. He’s scored 18 or more points three times this year and the matchup is a cakewalk against a New York Giants team that has let up 19 or more points to backs five times.
Situation to Avoid: Chris Johnson, Arizona Cardinals (at SEA)
While it’s been an incredible career-turnaround story for Arizona Cardinals running back Chris Johnson, the narrative doesn’t mean he’s a matchup-proof option.
Johnson might see the majority of the workload in the desert, but he has just three trips to double digits, those being of the 27, 10 and 18 variety. The explosiveness is clearly there, but the key for owners is figuring out when to channel it into a lineup-boosting affair, not a crippling one.
The Seattle Seahawks coming out of a bye isn’t a time to get cute with CJ2K. The unit has coughed up just three double-digit outings to backs this year and just two touchdowns. In a low-scoring affair, Johnson won’t break free.
WR
Difficult Decision to Make: Alshon Jeffery, Chicago Bears (at STL)
Alshon Jeffery isn’t the problem here—it’s the matchup.
Jeffery is a surefire WR1 most times out, but it’s a volatile situation because owners have to account for the matchup and the iffy players around him.
On paper, the St. Louis Rams have what it takes to stop Jeffery. They allow the third-fewest points to wideouts, having even held Arizona’s passing attack to no scores.
Then again, a close look at the schedule says the majority of St. Louis’ rank comes from an easy schedule against teams that don’t pass often, including Seattle, Washington, Pittsburgh mostly without a starter, Cleveland, San Francisco and Minnesota.
Green Bay, on the other hand, saw its wideouts post 26 points. Jeffery has three double-digit outings in a row and a minimum of eight catches and 116 yards and each. He’ll feast where others have failed.
Situation to Avoid: Nate Washington, Houston Texans (at CIN)
Houston Texans wideout Nate Washington is one of the sneakiest week-to-week plays in fantasy football.
Just not this week.
Washington has missed loads of time with injury this year, but he’s the owner of three double-digit outings and has three touchdowns over the course of his last two games while defenses focus on counterpart DeAndre Hopkins.
One unit that can account for all of Houston’s weapons? The Cincinnati Bengals, a team that has allowed three scores to wideouts dating back through Week 4. The team’s rush and players who can cover on an island mean Washington will have a quiet day.
TE
Difficult Decision to Make: Richard Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (vs. DET)
Green Bay Packers tight end Richard Rodgers isn’t the most trustworthy name out there given the variety of weapons the offense can go to on a week-to-week basis.
This time out, though, Rodgers figures to be a large chunk of the game plan thanks to the matchup with the Detroit Lions.
The Lions have surrendered a touchdown to the position in six games already this year. That’s only three double-digit allowances, but Rodgers should get there given his offense’s preference to take to the air and exploit weaknesses.
His 13 points from a week ago might just be a floor in such a great matchup, even if he’s been rather hit or miss for most of the season.
Situation to Avoid: Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. CLE)
Owners should know the deal by now when it comes to Pittsburgh Steelers tight end Heath Miller, but it’s important to review the situation so nobody gets burnt.
The rule is simple: Never play Miller without Ben Roethlisberger under center. Miller has quality outings when Big Ben suits up, but when he doesn’t the veteran tight end fades from the offense entirely.
Case in point Week 7, where Landry Jones got the start and Miller didn’t catch any passes. Or the fact in four starts without Big Ben, Miller has just five catches.
The matchup with Cleveland is elite considering the Browns have allowed five touchdowns to tight ends over the past two weeks, but Miller won’t see enough usage to sniff worthwhile production.
All scoring info courtesy of ESPN standard leagues, as is points-against info and ownership stats as of November 12. Statistics courtesy of ESPN. Atlanta, Indianapolis, San Diego, San Francisco on bye.
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