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Betting on Football

NFL WEEK 7 Vegas picks ready

Betting on Football
November 1, 2017

Carolina Panthers versus Chicago Bears

The Panthers are coming off a home loss to the Philadelphia Eagles and sit at 4-2 for the season. They are a 3.5 point road favorite versus the 2-4 Chicago Bears. Carolina won the last meeting between the teams in 2014 as the favorite. The Panthers hold a decided +29 to +3 advantage on the Power Ranking Indicator. What’s worse for the Bears is they are -9.4 and “dead” status on the Team Strength Oscillator. Look for the Panthers to get back on track and cover the spread.

New Orleans Saints versus Green Bay Packers

While the Packers are generally tough at home, this is clearly not the same team without Aaron Rodgers are the helm. They come in at 4-2 and a 4-point underdog against the 3-2 Saints. While Packers still hold a 14-point advantage in the Power Ranking Indicator, they are on a downward trend versus a positive trend for New Orleans. Similarly, the Saints are “hot” on the Team Strength Oscillator, while the Packers on on the decline. The Packers will have difficulty scoring. The Saints are third in Team Volatility, making them a good bet as the favorite. Look for the Saints to win and move to 4-2 on the season.

Washington Redskins versus Philadelphia Eagles

The Redskins enter Philadelphia coming off a win over the 49ers, while the Eagles are arguably the best team in the NFC at the moment, at 5-1. The Eagles won the previous meeting on opening day in Washington. While the teams are nearly even in terms of the Team Strength Oscillator, the Eagles hold a commanding +28 to +12 advantage in the Power Ranking Indicator. A 6-point advantage at home, look for the Eagles to take down the Redskins in a hard-fought battle, improving to 6-1.

Baltimore Ravens versus Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings enter at 4-2 after handling the Packers last week, while the Ravens are at 3-3. Baltimore won the last meeting between the teams as a favorite in 2013. Although the Vikings are a 4.5 point favorite, the Ravens hold a +6.9 to +3.93 edge on the Team Strength Oscillator and a 7-point advantage in terms of the Power Ranking Indicator. Although the Vikings are the favorites, I look at the indicators and see an upset in the making. Go with the Ravens.

Seattle Seahwaks at New York Giants

Coming off a shocking win over the Broncos for their first win of the season, the Giants are a 7.5 point home underdog against the Seahawks, who come at 3-2. Seattle is tied for sixth in Team Volatility, further strengthening the argument to bet on them. They also hold edges in the Team Strength Oscillator (+4.93 to -2.62) and the Power Ranking Indicator (+12 to +1). While it’s possible the Giants can put together another great effort, it’s likely not going to be enough against Seattle. Look for the Seahawks to win and cover.

Atlanta Falcons versus New England Patriots

In a rematch of last season’s Super Bowl, the Falcons are entering at 3-2, coming off a loss, while the Patriots escaped with a win over the Jets. Atlanta is at +27 on the Power Ranking Indicator but on the decline, while the defending Super Bowl champs are +16 and no the rise. The Patriots haven’t played stellar defense but are at home and hard to pick against a Tom Brady lead team at home. Look for the Patriots to win and cover the 4-point spread.

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NFL Predictions: Week 8

Betting on Football
October 26, 2017

Oakland Raiders versus Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills enter the game 3-0 at home and 4-2 overall this season. Oakland comes into play coming off a win and are 3-4 on the season. The Raiders won the meeting between the two teams last December as a home favorite. A 2.5 point home favorite, the Bills are at -3.91 and average on the Team Strength Oscillator, while the Raiders are slightly higher at -3.09. The teams are even in terms of the Power Ranking Indicator. Given the Bills record at home and favorite status, I lean towards the Bills in a tight game.

Los Angeles Chargers versus New England Patriots

After starting off 0-4, the Chargers have won their last three. They head into New England against a Patriots team that is finding its stride. A 7.5 point favorite, the Patriots hold a decided advantage of in terms of both the Power Ranking Indicator and the Team Strength Oscillator. The defending Super Bowl champions won the last meeting between the teams as a road favorite in 2014. I expect a relatively easy win for the Patriots.

Chicago Bears versus New Orleans Saints

The Saints are one of the hottest teams in the NFL having won their last four games. At 4-2, they are a 9 point favorite over the 3-4 Bears. New Orleans won the last two meetings as a road favorite and hold a large advantage in terms of the Power Ranking Indicator, +23 to +5. They also have a “burning hot” status on the Team Strength Oscillator, while the Bears are “ice cold up” at -5.09. Another advantage for the Saints is that they are tied for second in Team Volatility. They are winning most of the team as a favorite and losing as an underdog. A large favorite in this game, I expect a big win for the Saints in this one.

Houston Texans versus Seattle Seahawks

After a sluggish 1-2 start, the Seahwaks are riding a three-game winning streak. The come in as a 5.5 point favorite against the 3-3 Texans, who are battling in the tight AFC South. Not a surprise, the Seahawks are “burning hot” in terms of the Strength Oscillator and +19 and climbing on the Power Ranking Indicator. In addition, they are fourth in Team Volatility. The Texans are “ice cold down” on the Strength Oscillator and are 12 points less on the Power Ranking Indicator. Seattle should win this game and likely cover the spread in the process.

Dallas Cowboys versus Washington Redskins

Dallas enters Washington coming off a blowout win against the 49ers, while the Redskins suffered a 34-24 loss to the Eagles. Both teams are 2.5 games behind the Eagles in the NFC East and need a win. The Cowboys are a 2.5 point road favorite and won both meetings between the teams last season. While the Redskins hold edges in both the Power Ranking Indicator and Strength Oscillator, the Cowboys have the Redskins number lately. Dallas is the favorite on the road and I think they will continue their head-to-head edge over Washington.

Denver Broncos versus Kansas City Chiefs

Both teams enter play having lost two straight. The Chiefs are more than a touchdown favorite and won both games between the teams last season. Despite the recent losses, the Chiefs still hold a +30 to +18 advantage in the Power Ranking Indicator. They also are +10.43 on the Team Strength Oscillator compared to +6.07 for the Broncos. Another thing in the Chiefs favor is that they are 8th in Team Volatility. The Broncos have a difficult time scoring and while the defense should keep them in the game for a while, the Chiefs should win this one going away.

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Smart money vs the public on NFL week 8

Betting on Football
October 26, 2017

Our anti public smart strategy works like charm!

We went 2-1 ATS in Week 7 which improves our YTD to 15-6. Let’s see if we can keep it going with a few potential plays for Week 8. The main strategy I want to implement is fading the public. Books are always looking to exploit public perception so hopefully we can find a few winners by fading the public in a few heavily public-bet games. Obviously, this is written on Wednesday (10/25) so always keep an eye on the changing lines and percentages.

OAKLAND @ BUFFALO

The Raiders had a huge win last week over Kansas City and the public took notice.

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Oakland snapped a 4 game losing streak to win last week and now must go on the road after 3 straight home games. The Bills are undefeated at home and looking to continue a strong start to their season. This is a game they need to win and I expect a big effort. Let’s take Buffalo -2.5 (Bookmaker)

ATLANTA @ NEW YORK JETS

The public has a hard time remembering 2017 is not 2016.

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Atlanta is a mess offensively and looking nothing like they did last season on their Super Bowl run. The Jets suffered a brutal loss last week and there will be a sense of urgency to play a complete game this week. Let’s take New York +4.5 (5Dimes)

DALLAS @ WASHINGTON

Dallas looked great against San Francisco last week and the public liked what they saw.

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Dallas is riding high but this is a must win for Washington. We should expect max effort from the Redskins while playing at home versus a divisional rival. Let’s take Washington +2 (BetOnline)

Like I mentioned, we have a few days until these games take place with lots of wagering in between so keeping an eye on the lines and percentages throughout the week is important. Fading the public is very successful when the public side is 80%+ so keep that in mind as the week progresses and the betting volume grows.

Like all sports investing, this strategy is most effective over the course of an entire season. Use consistent money management and stick to the plan in order to maximize profit. As always, using ZCode’s Line Reversals Tool is a great way to stay on top of all the action.

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? NFL WEEK 7 picks ready

Betting on Football
October 17, 2017

We went 2-1 ATS in Week 6 which improves our YTD to 13-5. Let’s see if we can keep it going with a few potential plays for Week 7. The main strategy I want to implement is fading the public. Books are always looking to exploit public perception so hopefully we can find a few winners by fading the public in a few heavily public-bet games. Obviously, this is written on Monday (10/16) so always keep an eye on the changing lines and percentages.

KANSAS CITY @ OAKLAND

While the Chiefs lost their first game of the season last week, the public still wants nothing to do with a disappointing Raiders team.

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This is a huge, must win game for Oakland. While both teams had a short week to prepare, Oakland didn’t have to travel and I think we will get a max effort from the Raiders. Let’s take Oakland +3 (Bookmaker)

ARIZONA @ LOS ANGELES RAMS

The public took notice of Adrian Peterson and the new look Cardinals.

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While the Cardinals did look much improved on offense, the Rams have quietly put together a strong start to their season. This is a great example of a team (Arizona) catching a lot of hype after a win which influences the public to overlook a good Rams team. Let’s take Los Angeles -3 (5Dimes)

DALLAS @ SAN FRANCISCO

San Francisco has not won a game yet this season and the public is on the Cowboys.

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While the 49ers haven’t won a game yet, they have stayed within 3 points for five straight games. Now back at home after 3 straight road games, they will be hungry to get their first win in front of their fans. Dallas, who might be without Ezekiel Elliott, hasn’t lived up to expectations and that might continue in a tougher-than-expected road trip. Let’s take San Francisco +6 (Bookmaker)

Like I mentioned, we have a few days until these games take place with lots of wagering in between so keeping an eye on the lines and percentages throughout the week is important. Fading the public is very successful when the public side is 80%+ so keep that in mind as the week progresses and the betting volume grows.

Like all sports investing, this strategy is most effective over the course of an entire season. Use consistent money management and stick to the plan in order to maximize profit. As always, using ZCode’s Line Reversals Tool is a great way to stay on top of all the action.

Click Here To Get All Completely Automatic Football Betting Picks!
 

Unlock our picks for ALL of the NFL regular season games at http://www.nerdyfootball.com/betting

? NFL anti public picks week 6

Betting on Football
October 15, 2017

Let’s see if we can keep it going with a few potential plays for Week 6. YTD to 11-4! The main strategy I want to implement is fading the public. Books are always looking to exploit public perception so hopefully we can find a few winners by fading the public in a few heavily public-bet games.

DETROIT @ NEW ORLEANS

Neither team has looked particularly good but the public has jumped on the Lions.

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Detroit is struggling with injuries as Haloti Ngata is out for the season and Matthew Stafford is going to play through a hamstring and ankle issue. With New Orleans coming off a bye week, the Saints should be fresh and ready to throw the ball against 4th worst passing defense in the league. Let’s take New Orleans -5.5 (5Dimes)

PITTSBURGH @ KANSAS CITY

Kansas City is the only undefeated team left and the public is still riding that train.

2

The Chiefs looked great winning at Houston while Ben Roethlisberger threw 5 interceptions during arguably the worst game of his career. This is a great spot to buy low and catch a hungry Steelers team looking to bounce back. Let’s take Pittsburgh +5 (BetOnline)

Like I mentioned, we have a few days until these games take place with lots of wagering in between so keeping an eye on the lines and percentages throughout the week is important. Fading the public is very successful when the public side is 80%+ so keep that in mind as the week progresses and the betting volume grows.

Like all sports investing, this strategy is most effective over the course of an entire season. Use consistent money management and stick to the plan in order to maximize profit. As always, using ZCode’s Line Reversals Tool is a great way to stay on top of all the action.

Click Here To Get All Completely Automatic Football Betting Picks!
 

Unlock our picks for ALL of the NFL regular season games at http://www.nerdyfootball.com/betting